The Tri-State is still on track for the first accumulating snow of the season.
The models are coming into agreement on the timing and track of the storm.
While some light snow and flurries will be possible tonight over Illinois and Indiana, the main event will unfold on Sunday.
Temperatures will climb above freezing on Sunday afternoon, and then plunge as a cold front sweeps through Sunday evening.
Low pressure to the south will track through the Gulf states and send a plume of moisture up and over the cold air at the surface.
This will cause Sunday afternoon rain to quickly change over to snow as the cold air arrives.
Snow will spread from northwest to southeast across the Tri-State, beginning Sunday afternoon over Illinois and dropping into Kentucky by Sunday night.
We should see all snow area-wide by Sunday night.
Total accumulations will range from 1-2" everyplace with some spot 3" totals possible by Monday morning.
The recent Arctic outbreak of frigid air has chilled the ground enough that the snow should stick.
Untreated and elevated roads will become slick on Sunday night and it will likely be a messy commute on Monday morning.