Well... not just yet! But there are signs that we could be looking at an active winter, with the potential for some decent snow events if everything lines up right!
First off, check out the attached image. It's the Farmer's Almanac prediction for this winter. The Farmer's Almanac predicts long-range weather by combining several factors like sun spot activity, past weather, prevailing patterns, etc. Its a great tool to use when trying to determine a seasonal forecast, but there are a lot of other factors out there. Teleconnections are my forecasting tool of choice to get an idea of what the winter will be like. ENSO, which determines El Nino or La Nina, is an example of such teleconnections. Here's what is potentially on tap for this winter:
El Nino MAY develop toward late fall/early winter. That would mean that we would likely see more rain/sleet/snow this winter, essentially our moisture transport will be in full swing! Also, the NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation, may be negative for a good part of the winter, which would allow a lot of cold air to flow into the southeast. This could mean some significant snow or ice events here in the Carolinas. However, none of this is set in stone. Long range forecasts are incredibly tough, and can be unreliable. Hey, it's hard enough to get the 7-day forecast to verify!
So, a cooler and wetter winter look like a decent bet here in the Carolinas and Georgia, but that doesn't mean we'll get any epic snows or ice storms. We could get a few small snows, or perhaps see a lot of cold rain! But, I do think it would be good to invest in some warm, water-proof boots and a good, all-weather coat for the winter!
We'll keep you posted on how these trends evolve through the fall!
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