The cold front to our west is inching toward the Tri-State, and will kick up some showers and thunderstorms tonight and through much of the day on Friday. Here is a look at the surface map as of Thursday afternoon. You can see a larger mass of precip over Texas that will shoot north ahead of the front and bring rain to the area later tonight and on Friday.
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk to include a small portion of southwest Indiana, in addition to all of southern Illinois.
The slight risk means that conditions will be a little more favorable for severe storms in the highlighted areas. The Storm Prediction Center uses current satellite and radar trends, along with frequently updated computer models to asses areas that may see some severe weather. The forecast for day 1 is broken down into more specific threats. Here is the hail potential chart:
These percentages simply express the likelihood of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of any point within the outlook area. While 15% seems like a small number, it is considerably higher than a normal thunderstorm day. By the way, there is no risk for tornadoes assigned to the Tri-State for tonight. Here is tomorrow's severe outlook…you can see the risk shifts to the northeast of the region as widespread rain stabilizes the atmosphere.
Speaking of rain, here is the latest data for accumulated rain between Thursday night and early Saturday morning.
Most of the rain will be clear of the Tri-State before sunrise on Saturday morning, so we'll enjoy a partly sunny but cooler weekend.