Check out the Tri-State's risk for severe weather this week

Scattered thunderstorms will pop up each day in response to heating by the sun.  These storms will travel from northeast to southwest as they follow the surface and upper air winds circulating around the low pressure system over the Carolinas.  Here is a look at today's surface map:


It has been a very quiet spring so far…very little in the way of severe weather here in the Tri-State.  For the next 3 days, we'll keep this trend going.  Here is the severe weather outlook for Tuesday night…just general storms expected.


Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, with a high in the lower 80's.  It will also have the lowest probability for storms, only about 20-30% in the afternoon.  The SPC risk map shows the Tri-State is in the quiet area between weather disturbances.


Here is Thursday's SPC severe outlook.  Notice the slight risk to the north of the Tri-State.  We'll have to keep an eye on that to see if it enlarges to cover the northern sections of the Tri-State on Thursday night.


The rainfall models are a little deceiving:  These contours average out rainfall over the model grid, so we will likely see locally heavier amounts, and other locations that receive very little, if any rainfall.


Today's pop-up thunderstorms, for example, dropped .60" of rain over eastern Vanderburgh county and a half inch in downtown Henderson,  but no rain outside of the narrow storm track.  Here is a look at Tuesday afternoon's rainfall using 14 Dual Doppler's rain vision tool that uses algorithms to estimate rainfall over a 6-hour period.