Late Morning/Early Afternoon: After pockets of spotty drizzle and light rain this morning, especially in the northern Upstate and Western NC, the possibility of more of those scattered showers and drizzle will stick around. There will be more dry time than periods of rain/drizzle for most towns this morning and early afternoon. Temperatures won't warm up much staying in the 40s.
Late Afternoon/Evening: A better chance of rain arrives later today as the system responsible for triggering the rain moves closer to us. Highs by the afternoon will range from the upper 40s to low 50s in the northern Upstate to 54°-60° in the southern Upstate and portions of northeast Georgia. Western NC highs will only reach the upper 40s and low 50s.
Changes on Tuesday: Pay attention while on the road tomorrow morning as there may be some patchy, thick fog developing. Otherwise, more sunshine will come back out tomorrow along with warmer temperatures. Highs will reach the 60s for many towns tomorrow afternoon.
Late Week - Cooler & Dry: Expect cooler conditions on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Morning temperatures will start in the 30s for Upstate towns mid-late week while Western NC lows will dip into the 20s
Weekend System: Several forecast model charts made available the last several days have indicated the a setup for some wintry precipitation, especially in the mountains of Western NC.
However, many charts indicated only a marginal amount of cold air north of us while essentially showing thicknesses as well as critical temperature levels slightly too warm for anything other than snow outside of Virginia. Some charts have shown accumulating snow for Western NC, but even those projections have backed off. Still, the upper-level energy and winds shown on these charts support the idea that a good amount of precipitation may fall on Saturday and Sunday.
Here's the thing. Even if forecast data and some charts suggested the potential for snow or sleet for the Upstate, NE Georgia and Western NC for the upcoming weekend, I wouldn't buy it. I wouldn't buy what the charts suggested because the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of a very pronounced warm layer from the surface to 5,000ft. That's the layer most critical in determining what precipitation-type will come down.
Even though snow has happened here before in middle to late March, it very rarely happens. There isn't much of a chance for this system or setup to produce anything more than rain, even for Western NC towns. More soaking rains will move in this upcoming weekend though as a wedge of cool air moves down from the northeast keeping temperatures chilly across our area on Saturday and Sunday.
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