After a few flurries and light rain showers come down today, our sky will clear some on Sunday. Monday will feature more sunshine and will be the first day in the 50s that we have seen for a while.
By Tuesday, the system we have been talking about for a couple of days will be moving through the Midwest and spreading some rain ahead of it toward us. The track of this system is key to defining IF, where and when snow will fall in our area. If the upper-low tracks just south of us, a better chance for snow will be exist. If the upper low tracks over our heads or just north of us, North Carolina and Virginia will hold the only chance for snow.
What I can guarantee you is that rain will fall first (Tuesday or Tuesday night) with this upper-level low... rain always falls first ahead of upper lows because the system pulls warm air ahead of it. The only thing in question is if snow will come down around here after that.
To me, the track of this system has more room to go north of us or trend north than it does to trend south of us due to the overall flow ahead of the system and behind it. As of the latest data available, some projections have snow coming down in the Upstate & NE Georgia while other projections show the axis of heavy snow staying in North Carolina and some in Virginia.
If I had to call it right now, the Upstate wouldn't get any snow from this system as the axis of snow pushed just north of SC and hits portions of Western and northern NC and southern Virginia. Another thing is that this upper-low (system) is fairly small and without a more expansive core, it probably won't be able to produce the kind of mid-level, sub-freezing temperatures needed for widespread snow.
It's a tricky forecast and there are too many red flags at this time to be specific, but the situation looks like more of a rainy one than a snowy one at this time.
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