Soggy, windy and mild Presidents' Day on the way

Southerly winds pumped temps up a bit today into the low to mid 40s, which is close to normal this time of year.  I'm tracking a warm front to our west which will move in early tomorrow morning.  Lows will be in the low 30s overnight, but will most likely rise into the mid 30s by daybreak thanks to the warm front.

Behind the warm front, a strong cold front will approach the tri-state on Presidents' Day.  Ahead of the system, very warm and windy conditions will develop as the pressure gradient tightens.

This is one computer model of the system moving in at 6pm on Monday.  The blue indicates the moisture available for this system as widespread showers move in for the evening.

Although this is a strong front with gusty winds and plenty of moisture available, there is very little instability around our region, so severe weather should stay well to our south.  It is possible we'll see some heavy rainfall and possibly a wind advisory issued, but strong thunderstorms will be mainly down around Arkansas, Louisiana & eastern Texas.