Just when you thought winter would ease its grip on the Tri-State…poof ! Another surge of cold air will plunge in behind a clipper system over the weekend. Snow chances are slim, but we will likely see a few flurries or snow showers on Friday. Nothing should stick, so I'm not expecting much impact on travel.
As you can see on the MRF model…high temperatures over the weekend will skid back into the 30's, while lows will go into the lower 20's. This cold air is actually "inside" of the trough that the jetstream will form over the Mississippi River. I've traced the jetstream in white on this 300 mb chart depicting the position on Saturday.
The cold air will ease back to the north as the jet transitions to a more westerly flow on Monday. This will draw moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico and bring showers and maybe a few thunderstorms to the Tri-State on Monday night – Thursday. So far, we're about 3" above normal for rainfall this year, so we'd like to keep that trend going to erase the drought's lasting impact. Temperatures have been running slightly above normal for both January and February.
This chart from the HPC shows potential rainfall from Sunday to Tuesday night. These charts tend to average or smooth the rainfall contours, so they are not good for indicating locally heavy rain that may occur with thunderstorms if any develop.