As a series of cold fronts pushes across the Tri-State, we'll have increasing chances of rain. The first batch will come on Thursday, but as you can see by the HPC forecast, this will only net around a quarter of an inch of rainfall.
The surface map for Thursday shows the cold front lined up just to the west of the Tri-State. Most of the rain will occur along and ahead of this boundary.
Over the weekend, winds will turn back to the south, and this will pull even more moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico, along with mild temperatures. As the mercury rises into the 50's, we'll see more rain moving in on Sunday through Tuesday. This chart from the HPC shows our 7-day rain totals. Notice the bullseye to our south…this is where more lift and instability will be present, so thunderstorms will develop that are capable of putting down heavier rainfall.
At the risk of jinxing our fairly tame weather pattern, we've not had to deal with much wintry precip since the Christmas night blizzard. January was well below normal with only .3" of snow (normal is around 4"). If we can wiggle through February without much snow, we're almost home free, as spring begins in mid March. But, as my grandma used to say "If "if's" and nuts were cakes and nuts we'd all have a Merry Christmas.
Much can change, and usually does !
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